Fresh off a Sun Belt Championship campaign in 2024, a new-look Marshall will need to find its identity quickly as they take on No. 5 Georgia team in the season opener.
The Herd finished 2024 with a 10-3 record and a 31-3 win over Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship. Within a few days, Head Coach Charles Huff accepted a job at Southern Miss (1-11) and NC State Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson was announced as Marshall’s new Head Coach.
Even with a Sun Belt title in 2024, this Herd team has some question marks– but a ton of optimism from its fanbase.
Roster Turnover
According to Marshall’s official media guide, there are 74 new players on the Herd’s roster, which is the most in all of FBS football. The Herd rank last in the nation in returning production.
Fortunately, Marshall is not alone. Many Sun Belt teams experienced transfers of key players and staff in the offseason. The key to Marshall’s success in 2025 will be finding its rhythm quickly to avoid unexpected losses early in the season.
Gibson and offensive coordinator Rod Smith have a deep running back room entering the season.
For more information on the Marshall roster, click here.
Schedule Breakdown
Marshall is a 39.5 point underdog for its Aug. 30 matchup with Georgia. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Herd a 2.7% win probability. Long story short, this is not an ideal first game for a team looking to find itself. However, Marshall boasts two power conference wins in the last three seasons, including a win on the road against No. 8 Notre Dame in 2022. In other words, Georgia is not just a paycheck game for the Herd.
The Herd faces Missouri State and Eastern Kentucky at home the following two weeks. ESPN gives Marshall a 74.6% win probability over the FBS newcomers and 92.2% over EKU. Look for Missouri State quarterback Jacob Clark to test the Herd defense in a potential trap game. Clark finished 2024 with 3,604 yards passing with 26 touchdowns and only six interceptions.
Next, the Herd will visit an old Conference USA foe in Middle Tennessee. Marshall leads the series all-time against MTSU 6-5, but MTSU is 4-1 at home and 5-4 overall since joining CUSA in 2013. The lone road win for Marshall came in a 38-10 blowout in 2017. ESPN gives Marshall a 74.2% win probably against Middle Tennessee on the road, but given the Herd’s history in Murfreesboro, it could be a closer game.
Marshall begins its defense of the Sun Belt title on Sept. 27 in a SBC Championship rematch against Louisiana. With just a 39.9% likelihood to win via ESPN Analytics, this is bound to be one of Marshall’s toughest conference games in the entire season.
After a bye week, ODU travels to Huntington for the Herd’s first home game in a month. Marshall needed a late touchdown run from Ethan Payne to beat ODU 42-35 in 2024. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph had 227 yards passing, 158 net rushing yards and three total touchdowns. ESPN gives the Herd a 57.1% win probability in this one.
Texas State comes to Huntington for homecoming on Oct. 18, and despite the high expectations for the Bobcats, ESPN gives the Herd a 61.7% win probability. Texas State is coming off two 8-5 seasons that mark the best two-year period in school history.
The back half of the season is where things get interesting for Marshall. The final five games of the season are against Sun Belt East opponents, four of which had preseason rankings higher than the Herd. Marshall travels to Coastal Carolina for a Thursday night matchup that will be nationally televised. ESPN Analytics has Marshall marginally favored in this game with a 50.3% win probability.
Following Coastal Carolina, Marshall returns home for the “75 Game” to face the East division favorites, JMU. The road team has won this matchup in each of the last three seasons. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor sees that trend continuing, favoring JMU with a 51.5% win probability.
Every year since 2013, Marshall remembers the 75 players, staff and community members who perished on November 14, 1970 on a return flight from East Carolina with the “75 Game.” The last time Marshall played on the road on the weekend of the anniversary was against Tulsa in 2013. The Sun Belt has the Herd traveling to face Georgia State on November 15th this season, and ESPN has the Herd as underdogs with a 44.2% win probability. Georgia State was picked to finish last in the Sun Belt East after finishing 3-9 in 2024.
Marshall’s final road game of 2025 will be Appalachian State on November 22nd. The Mountaineers have a slight advantage according to ESPN, 50.4%-49.6%.
Finally, Marshall closes out the 2025 regular season at home in what will be considered a revenge game for many Herd fans. Georgia Southern was Marshall’s sole blemish in conference play last season, scoring three touchdowns in the final 6:32 to beat the Herd 24-23. ESPN Analytics give Marshall a 52.6% win probability against the Eagles.
Projected 2025 Record
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 9-3
Projection: 7-5
Story to Watch
While Marshall had the largest roster overhaul in all of college football, Herd fans continue to have high expectations for the 2025 season. On a game-by-game basis, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has the Herd at 7-5 on the season. However, as evidenced by the five matchups within 11% win probability (four within 5%), this season could shift quickly for a lot of reasons.
Marshall has been bowl eligible in 11 of the last 12 seasons. Many national media members and college football analysts have Marshall missing a bowl game this season because of two key factors: roster turnover and coaching turnover. At the end of the day, no one truly knows how teams will play until we get further into the season. Transfer class rankings are helpful, but not fully indicative.
One key stat to remember: Marshall has won 81.4% of its home games in Joan C. Edwards Stadium, the 4th best mark in the country. Only Alabama (Bryant-Denny), Boise State (Albertsons) and Oklahoma (Gaylord Family) have higher win percentages at home. If Marshall fails to reach a bowl game, it will not be due to the Herd’s performance at home.
Marshall may have the hardest schedule in the Sun Belt. On its own, the SBC East has statistically been above every other Group of 5 conference in power ratings such as ESPN FPI and SP+. In addition to Sun Belt East competition, Marshall must face the teams picked to finish first and second in the Sun Belt West by a wide margin.
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