Arkansas State men's basketball preview for Week 12
After back-to-back loses to South Alabama and Troy last week, Arkansas State will look to get back on track with road games against Georgia Southern and Georgia State. Despite recent struggles, the Red Wolves still sit in fifth place in the Sun Belt with a 4-3 record and sport an overall record of 12-7.
Arkansas State at Georgia Southern
Since joining the Sun Belt, the Eagles have often bested the Red Wolves. Arkansas State trails the conference series with four wins and eight losses, including a blowout loss last season. Georgia Southern is sits in second place in the Sun Belt with a 5-2 record in conference play.
Despite the perceived advantages for the Eagles, the stats tell a different story. They rank 244 in KenPom, while Arkansas State sits nearly 100 spots higher at 156. These rankings should be taken with a grain of salt – Georgia Southern’s non-conference schedule was one of the nation’s easiest and plays a role in its surprisingly low ranking. However, the Eagles have only beaten one team in the top half of the conference standings (Georgia State, 7th), so perhaps the ranking has some merit.
Both teams will look to push the pace. Arkansas State comes in at number 12 in adjusted tempo, which projects how many possessions a team has per 40 minutes with opponents taken into account. Georgia State clocks in at number 37. Fans should expect a high-scoring, fast contest. Both teams rank towards the top of the conference in offense and towards the bottom in defense.
Georgia Southern’s Tyren Moore has been on a tear since conference play began. The diminutive guard is averaging 18.1 points per game while shooting just over 90% from the free throw line. Arkansas State will need to avoid sending him to the line, as Moore has ben inefficient from the field. His 41 field goal percentage and 28 percent three-point mark need to improve if the Eagles want to improve their offensive consistency.
Tipoff: Thursday, Jan. 22; 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN+
Radio: 107.9 KFIN (A-State); Varsity Network (Georgia Southern)
Arkansas State at Georgia State
Much like Georgia Southern, Arkansas State has found positive results against Georgia State difficult to come by. The Red Wolves are 5-10 against the Panthers in conference play. Arkansas State took home last season’s matchup in a blowout 85-59 home win. This year, they’ll be traveling into enemy territory.
Arkansas State has been dominant at home this season, posting a 7-1 record. However, the result on the road have been a mixed bag. The Red Wolves are 5-6 away from Jonesboro and have not beaten the Panthers in Atlanta since 1995. Georgia State is 4-2 at home this season.
Despite Arkansas State’s subpar track record in Atlanta, KenPom will heavily favor the Red Wolves. Georgia State ranks 277 in the metric due to an anemic offense, which ranks 333 out of 365 teams. The Panthers average just over 70 points-per-game this season, ranking second-to-last in the conference (Louisiana averages just 60). Their defense, which ranks seventh in the Sun Belt, is a better unit than Arkansas State’s. The drastic difference in offensive output between the two squads might be too much for Georgia State’s defense to overcome.
It will be difficult for the Panthers to neutralize the Red Wolves offense due to Arkansas State’s committee scoring approach. Four players average between 10.3 and 11.9 points per game. TJ Caldwell is a hot shooting night away from making it five players averaging double figures (he sits at 9.6 heading into the week).
Much of the scoring load for Georgia State will fall on the shoulders of Jelani Hamilton. The redshirt sophomore is averaging a staggering 19.6 points per game in conference play. The next closest Panther is Micah Tucker, who averages 11.9. If Arkansas State is able to hone in on the duo, it could be a long night for the home team’s offense.
Tipoff: Saturday, Jan. 24; 1 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN+
Radio: 107.9 KFIN (A-State); WGTJ-FM 97.5 (Georgia State)
About The Author
