Brand recognition at the national level continues to be one of the Sun Belt's greatest weaknesses
Where does the Sun Belt currently stand? Since the start of the College Football Playoff and New Years’ Six bowls in 2014, every Group of Five conference has been jockeying for the status of best “G5” conference due to the access to, and implications of, a New Years Six bowl or College Football Playoff birth. Until 2023, there was no debate that the best Group of Five conference was the American Conference. That’s when conference realignment really shook things up.
How Did We Get Here?
In 2023 UCF, Houston and Cincinnati joined the Big 12, and shortly thereafter SMU paid its way to the ACC. The American Conference added Charlotte, FAU, Rice, North Texas, UAB and UTSA from Conference USA, plus Army from independent status, opting to primarily focus on schools with access to large media markets rather than brand recognition. According to a 2023 article by Sports Business Journal, “For more than a decade, market size has been the deciding factor whenever college conferences looked at adding schools.” This caused a significant shift in the American’s power rating metrics in 2023 and 2024, even with a historic season from Tulane in 2023. The Sun Belt, in comparison, added schools within or near its existing footprint: Marshall, Old Dominion (ODU), James Madison (JMU) and Southern Miss.
Which Group of Five Conference was the Best in 2023 and 2024?
The Sun Belt Conference was arguably, and in some instances definitively, the best Group of Five conference in 2023 and 2024. The Sun Belt was the only Group of Five conference with a cumulative +.500-record in both seasons. The SBC posted a 6-5 and 7-6 record against the American in 2023 and 2024, respectively, as well as a cumulative 10-8 and 9-6 record against the rest of the Group of Five.
Massey Ratings, one of the nation’s most popular power rating metrics, had the following Group of Five conference rankings at year-end 2023:
Sun Belt
6.97 power rating; 39-29 record vs. non-conference opponents
Mountain West
6.94 power rating; 28-28 record vs. non-conference opponents
American
6.86 power rating; 27-35 record vs. non-conference opponents
Conference USA
6.65 power rating; 20-21 record vs. non-conference opponents
Mid-American
6.57 power rating; 19-27 record vs. non-conference opponents
For comparison, the average Power Five team had a 7.85 power rating in 2023. The Sun Belt East finished with a rating of 7.11. The Sun Belt West had a 6.84 rating.
Massey Ratings (2024)
Mountain West
6.97 power rating; 29-37 record vs. non-conference opponents
American
6.96 power rating; 33-29 record vs. non-conference opponents
Sun Belt
6.95 power rating; 32-30 record vs. non-conference opponents
Mid-American
6.65 power rating; 25-30 record vs. non-conference opponents
Conference USA
6.47 power rating; 14-30 record vs. non-conference opponents
For comparison, the average Power Five team had a 7.94 power rating in 2024. The Sun Belt East finished with a rating of 7.08. The Sun Belt West had a 6.83 rating.
The argument could certainly be made for all three of the MWC, American and SBC in 2024, however the Sun Belt East and the head-to-head record versus other Group of Five conferences set the SBC apart. In fact, the SBC East division has had a final power rating of 7.0+ each of the last four seasons.
Brand recognition at the national level continues to be one of the Sun Belt’s greatest weaknesses as the conference failed to grab the NY6 Bowl or CFP bid in 2023 and 2024. In fact, multiple non-championship Group of Five teams finished ranked ahead of the 10-3 Sun Belt Champion, Marshall.
How Does the Sun Belt Stack Up in 2025?
With significant coaching and roster changes over the last two seasons, the Sun Belt’s potential claim to the top spot is gone, for now.
There is no secret that the American Conference is back to the top in 2025. The American boasts wins over each Power Four conference, and USF dominated the 2025 pre-season MWC Champion. Through week four, the Sun Belt is 2-5 against the American and 6-5 against the rest of the Group of Five. The SBC only has one win over a Power Four opponent (ODU > Virginia Tech) compared to three in 2024 and four in 2023.
The Massey Ratings for 2025 currently look like this:
American: 7.28
Mountain West: 7.17
Sun Belt: 6.94
Conference USA: 6.69
Mid-American: 6.62
For comparison, the average Power Five team currently sits at a 8.08 power rating. The Sun Belt East and West have power ratings of 7.05 and 6.82, respectively.
In other words, the SBC has some work to do the rest of the season.
Remaining Sun Belt Opportunities in 2025
With week five of the college football season at hand, the Sun Belt is running out of time to make a statement beyond ODU’s thrashing of Virginia Tech. Here are five resume-building opportunities for the conference the rest of this season.
Appalachian State vs. Boise State (September 27, 2025)
Both of these programs are amongst the winningest teams in the FBS in the last decade. The Mountaineers’ social media team highlighted the significance of this stat in a post on X on Wednesday. A win for App State on the road in Boise would certainly make waves across college football, arguably knocking Boise State out of CFP contention before October.
South Alabama vs. North Texas (September 27, 2025)
The Mean Green are off to a hot 4-0 start in 2025, so much so that ESPN Analytics gives them a 13.4% chance to make the playoffs. South Alabama has a chance to silence the hype this weekend and steer the Sun Belt vs. American record in a better direction.
ULM vs. Northwestern (October 4, 2025)
Northwestern is consistently one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. While it would not be a blockbuster win, ULM has one of few chances to bring another Power Four win home for the Sun Belt. More importantly, Tulane’s victory over Northwestern would be weakened if ULM pulls off the upset. The Warhawks’ last six-win season was 2018, and most power metrics have them near the bottom of the conference.
Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina (November 22, 2025)
Coastal Carolina has struggled since the departure of Jamey Chadwell to Liberty. A win against South Carolina would carry larger implications than Memphis’ win over Arkansas. Preseason SEC media polls had South Carolina finishing 5th in the conference, while Arkansas was projected 14th.
JMU vs. Washington State (November 22, 2025)
While the Pac-12 is no longer considered a “Power Conference,” Washington State is a respectable opponent that may have a few strong wins under its belt by the time these two teams face off. In JMU’s case, the Dukes expect to be in SBC-title contention with CFP hopes on the line.
Lastly, there are a few games I consider “must-win” for the Sun Belt, where a loss only hurts the 2025 metrics further: ODU vs. Liberty, Southern Miss vs. Jax State, and App State vs. Oregon State.
Looking Ahead
While the Sun Belt may be comparatively down in 2025, the season isn’t over yet. In an era where national media and college football fans treat seasons as “College Football Playoffs or Bust,” it is crucial for the Sun Belt to perform well as a whole. National recognition and respect for the conference benefit every program, and ultimately, it may lead to the conference’s first CFP birth, whether this year or next.
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