Week 10 Preview - Arkansas State Travels to Troy in Clash of Red-Hot Teams

TROY, AL. – Arkansas State is set to travel to Troy for a game with significant implications in the Sun Belt West. The teams occupy two of the top three spots in the division along with Southern Miss. The Red Wolves enter the game on a three game win streak, while the Trojans have won their last five games.

Arkansas State

Despite winning each of their past three games, none of the victories have come easy. The Red Wolves have trailed in the second half during each contest, with wins over Texas State and South Alabama coming by just one point.

Arkansas State will look to get off to a better start this time around. Troy has been a strong second-half team, outscoring their opponents in the final 30 minutes in four of their last five.

After weeks of stagnation in the running game, the Red Wolves rushing attack finally broke through in last weekend’s win over Georgia Southern. The team rushed for 266 yards, and the duo of Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer became the first pair of Arkansas State teammates to break the 100 yard mark in the same game since 2016.

Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was unstoppable in short-yardage situations. The junior rushed for three touchdowns, with each one coming from less than ten yards out. He added 216 passing yards, but left some plays on the table through the air. The conditions were unfavorable, but he failed to connect on a few deep attempts to Corey Rucker. Raynor and his star receiver will need to be on the same page to find success against a stingy Trojans pass defense.

Troy has not been as successful defending the rush. Raynor’s versatility as a rusher and passer could give Arkansas State options on every down. Clay and Spencer’s breakout games could also be used as springboards as the Red Wolves try to improve the ground game for the season’s home stretch.

Troy

Troy took care of business against Louisiana on Saturday, winning 35-23. The Trojans were out-gained on offense, but the defense picked up the slack. Jaquez White had a pick-6 and Kaleno Levine intercepted a pass on the next drive. Tucker Kilcrease punched it in from four yards out two plays later. It took just over a minute for Troy to turn a seven point deficit into a seven point lead.

The game was a microcosm of how the Trojan defense has found success. Their plus-four turnover margin in Sun Belt play ranks third-best. On the other hand, Arkansas State’s is third-worst at negative-four.

The Trojan offense has been firing on all cylinders since conference play began. Against conference opponents, they have averaged just under 38 points per game. The mark ranks second in the conference, trailing only Marshall. Troy has done much of their damage through an explosive air attack – their 9.54 yards per attempt also ranks second in the Sun Belt behind Southern Miss. Before last week’s win, Kilcrease had connected with a receiver for a gain of at least 40 yards in the previous four games.

This week’s opponent won’t make throwing the ball any easier. Arkansas State has the top-rated pass defense in the Sun Belt, allowing just 185.3 yards per game. They allow a 71 percent completion rate, but have limited back-breaking explosive plays downfield.

Troy’s rushing attack has yet to find success, but Arkansas State has proven to be vulnerable on the ground. They allow 194 rush yards per game and have given up rushes of at least 50 yards in half of their conference games. Last week was their best showing, holding Georgia Southern to just 3.1 yards per carry in rainy conditions. The Trojans should try to establish their run game early to see if last week’s result was a fluke for the Red Wolves.