“Texas State is in the final steps of accepting an invitation to the PAC-12,” read a 1:46am post on X from ESPN’s Pete Thamel on June 27th.
The PAC-12 will look entirely different in 2026 than it did five years ago, but one thing is for sure: ‘PAC-12 after dark’ is alive and well.
On Monday, Texas State University’s Board of Regents authorized a $5 million buyout to leave the Sun Belt Conference and join the PAC-12 for the 2026 season. As a result, the Sun Belt loses one of its largest institutions, and the Presidents of the remaining 13 universities face the tough decision of what to do next.
Reports from Pete Thamel and Brett McMurphy suggest the Sun Belt has a clear favorite for its replacement: Louisiana Tech.
Queue Lee Corso and his iconic “Not so fast, my friend!”
In the past week, David Schultz, host of the Locked on Sun Belt Podcast, confirmed with his sources that Louisiana Tech was being “blocked” from joining the SBC. According to Schultz, Sun Belt East schools are more interested in adding East Carolina or Western Kentucky, but dominoes may need to fall first. Other leaders in the conference suggest waiting out the PAC-12 and AAC to see what happens.
Thamel later reported the Sun Belt will either add Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, or sit tight at 13 schools, for now. Per Thamel, “There’s no July 1 pressure on a decision, which should play out in the next few weeks.”
With the further-anticipated expansion of the College Football Playoffs, Sun Belt presidents are faced with arguably the most important realignment decision in conference history. One wrong move could spoil the SBC’s progress with national media pundits over the last four years. The American Conference has dominated the discussion as the best “Group of Five” team for the last decade. After Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and SMU departed for the “Power Four,” that title was finally up for grabs.
The Sun Belt has risen to great heights since the turn of the decade, specifically in football, baseball and soccer. Assuming the departure of Texas State, seven of the league’s 13 remaining teams have won 10 or more games in football in a single season since 2021. In 2023, a record-setting 12-of-14 teams qualified for bowl season, outpacing every conference in the nation. The league was the only Group of Five conference with a +.500 out-of-conference record in both 2023 and 2024.
All of that being said, where does that leave us with the current phase of conference realignment? Unlike a decade prior when the Sun Belt was being looted by CUSA, SBC leaders have a chance to be proactive and send a message to the rest of the college football world: The Sun Belt has risen, and it’s here to stay.
Let’s talk about the three teams that are generating the most buzz for a Sun Belt invite.
East Carolina
ECU, like Memphis, is a member of the American Athletic Conference with aspirations of a P4 invite. However, there seems to be little to no mutual interest from the Big 12 or ACC at this time.
This would be a home-run pickup for the Sun Belt Conference. The Pirates are reportedly the clear favorite of Sun Belt East universities, and for a good reason. Located in Greenville, NC, ECU is a perfect geographic fit and would certainly establish immediate “rivalries” with Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina. Marshall and East Carolina have an existing history with one another as well. The Pirates have a strong football tradition and a passionate fan base, boasting an average attendance of 37,000 in 2024 (ranking second in the Group of Five behind Fresno State). ECU would come into the Sun Belt with one of the larger athletic budgets and a serious commitment for success in athletics.
With no NCAA Tournament appearances since the 1992-93 season, ECU does not add value to the SBC’s poor metrics in basketball. The Pirates do, however, have an elite baseball program with more than 30 NCAA Tournament appearances and seven NCAA Tournament regional championships.
Unfortunately, the major stumbling block with ECU is the TV money – it is estimated that ECU makes $7 million plus in the AAC, while the current SBC schools make closer to $2 million. ECU will not be willing to pay a buyout and lose significant TV revenue, but TV contracts will be re-negotiated if Memphis and Tulane depart for the PAC-12 or a Power Conference. Unless the PAC-12 surprises everyone in the next few weeks, it may be another year or two before ECU is on the table.
Western Kentucky
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are no strangers to the Sun Belt Conference, having been members before departing to CUSA in 2014. Some folks suggest there may be ill feelings towards WKU, but many fans are pleading their case to bring them back to the SBC.
While Kentucky is not in the current SBC geographic footprint, it would be a contiguous state neighboring West Virginia and Virginia, and only the state of Tennessee separates WKU from the Sun Belt West. Given its past in the SBC, WKU would reignite rivalries with teams like Troy, South Alabama and Marshall. The university’s $40 million athletic budget is in line with most of the SBC’s universities.
WKU is one of the winningest G5 programs over the last 11 seasons, failing to make a bowl game once during a two-year stint under Mike Sanford (2018). Additionally, ESPN FPI rates WKU as a top-10 G5 team from 2021 to 2024 (current G5 teams only) despite no 10-win seasons during that time frame. The Sun Belt has four other institutions on this list: Appalachian State, JMU, Louisiana and Marshall.
WKU’s basketball program has been a consistent top performer at the mid-major level. Since 2000, the Hilltoppers have made the NCAA Tournament eight times and advanced past the first round in 50% of their trips to the dance. Western Kentucky’s baseball program would be a respectable addition to the conference with four NCAA Regional appearances since 2008.
Realistically, if the Sun Belt has to take one school, it should be WKU. The only road block is the relationship Western Kentucky has with Middle Tennessee. WKU has not been willing to part ways with its longtime rival before, and the SBC will only have one open spot during this round of realignment unless it gets very creative.
Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs have the best geographic fit for the Sun Belt West of any candidate that may replace Texas State. Unfortunately for the SBC, LA Tech has seen some of its worst years on the gridiron in the post-COVID/transfer portal/NIL era. After a 10-3 season in 2019, Louisiana Tech went 5-5, 3-9, 3-9, 3-9 and 5-8. The Bulldogs essentially rank in the bottom 25 of FBS schools over the last three years, per ESPN FPI.
Louisiana Tech basketball has been solid with six 20-win seasons in the last seven years, however their last trip to the NCAA Tournament was in 1991. The Sun Belt could use the help in adding a competitive basketball team, but the Bulldogs do not have the mid-major brand awareness that Western Kentucky brings to the table.
The best argument for Louisiana Tech is its baseball program. LA Tech has made three NCAA Regional Appearances since 2016 and has consistently achieved 35-40+ wins in that period.
While those three schools are the most likely additions to the Sun Belt, here are a few creative ideas…
Liberty, ECU and WKU
If the Sun Belt wants to swing for the fences, this is the best option for the conference. Liberty has been surrounded with controversy over the years, but assuming leadership has addressed those issues, Sun Belt schools may be able to get over the cultural difference between the Flames and the SBC programs for the sake of competition. Liberty would immediately add in-state rivalries for ODU and JMU, plus a general rivalry with every other team in the East.
If the Sun Belt’s success from 2021 to 2024 hasn’t been enough to convince the nation it ranks among the best, then the addition of Liberty, ECU and WKU would likely elevate the Sun Belt to an undisputed spot at the top of the G5.
Toledo, Ohio and Western Kentucky
If the Sun Belt really wants to get creative and add the best fits from CUSA and the MAC, it could do so with these three schools. Toledo and Ohio have been perennial contenders in football and basketball in the MAC. The footprint would remain contiguous in 11 states, and the Sun Belt would add a fertile recruiting region in Ohio. The interesting aspect of this option would be reshaping divisions from the current East/West setup to a North/South setup.
Proposed SBC North: Toledo, Ohio, WKU, Marshall, JMU, ODU, App State, & Coastal Carolina
Proposed SBC South: Georgia State, Georgia Southern, South Alabama, Troy, Southern Miss, Louisiana, Louisiana Monroe & Arkansas State
The SBC North would be an elite division of G5 football in this scenario.
ECU, Western Kentucky and one other AAC program
If the Sun Belt wants to play the waiting game, it could add WKU now and hope the door opens up for ECU in a year or two. If the door is open for ECU, that means it is open for other AAC programs as well. UTSA, USF, UAB and FAU would all be considered strong options in the SBC footprint, but UAB seems like the school that would make the most sense, even if USF is a stronger brand and market. In this scenario, the SBC would maintain its East/West divisions, strengthening both sides of the conference.
If Memphis and Tulane leave the AAC for the PAC-12 or P4 at any time, the Sun Belt and PAC solidify themselves as the strongest conferences in the G5, immediately.
WKU, MTSU and Louisiana Tech
This is the weakest option of everything proposed above, but it may be the most realistic. All three of these schools should want to go back to the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt clearly has mixed feelings on all three, but CUSA has a weak TV contract in place that would allow for easy poaching. WKU and MTSU are tied to the hip, and LA Tech is already being discussed as a top option.
A joint admission of Louisiana Tech and MTSU would weaken the Sun Belt’s football metrics to a level that would allow the PAC-12 free claim to being the best G6 conference, or even Power 5, giving the PAC-12 perennial access to a precious CFP auto-bid.
There are plenty of “options” for the Sun Belt that would include any Conference USA, MAC or AAC team, but I truly feel anything not listed here would be considered unrealistic. Certain schools, like Memphis, Tulane and USF are mostly off limits due to higher demand and aspirations, and other schools, such as underperforming FCS call-ups, should be off limits due to the setback it may cause the SBC’s brand. Of course, there’s always the option of staying put at 13 teams and waiting until next year.
We will likely know the direction the conference will take within the next few weeks.
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Excellent write up! and I almost 100 percent agree with everything you just said.
However, apart from a few fans online who keep saying it, there’s really no appetite for Liberty to join the conference. Heck, I even had a fan tell me today that while yeah they would create an instant “rival” for many SBC East schools, he would hate seeing them on the schedule annually.
And I think that’s the major difference. The rivalries we see in the SBC right now are ones we are excited to play annually. I know JMU is over the moon the play the SBC East on a yearly basis. Adding a school that fans would actively dread interacting with on a consistent basis just doesn’t make sense to me.
Furthermore, and probably more importantly, college presidents still want nothing to do with that school. While yes, they got rid of the toxic head of the university, that still has not rinsed off the overall “ick” many people feel about the institution. It takes a little more than a few years to get rid of all the bad juju that has been coming out of that place for 5 decades.
And finally, before some fan from the school in Lynchburg jumps in these comments, no this has nothing to do with religion. If the SBC had the chance to add Notre Dame, they would do so in a heartbeat. So please, come up with a better excuse.
I think folks are going to have to realize that Liberty does not need the Sunbelt. It would be great to have regional rivalries, but the school is already well off financially, has a better TV contract in CUSA (as does every other school), has been to a NY6, and has never had a losing season in all their years in FBS. The only loser here is the SBC. Liberty can literally and figuratively afford to wait for the best option. If the SBC is not careful, their focus on local enthusiasm with reginal games is going to get them left behind. Their TV deal will not be renegotiated until 2031, and you think ESPN is going to go “WKU! Well why didn’t you say so? Here is 3 million more a year!” The Sunbelt is going to need Liberty far before Liberty needs the Sunbelt.